The Changing Structure of Karnataka's Five-Year Plans-1985 through 2007: A Markov Chain Approach


  • University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore, India
  • University of Mysore, Institute of Development Studies, Mysore, India
  • District Commissioner (Mysore District), Mysore, India


Outlays and expenditure on the ten five year plans have been reviewed and their impact on the principal sectors have been analysed. Results reveal that irrigation sector and social welfare sector have been receiving consistent spending. Housing and Urban and Rural development also received a substantial outlay. Government's spending on infrastructure and transportation, which includes road development and education, has continued to receive government patronage right through the past four five year plans. Funds for agriculture and spending on rural development appear to be inadequate. The power sector is not receiving its due share corresponding to its priority in the state's economy. Budgetary allocation to a particular sector has not followed a consistent path due to ad hocism. The overall economy of the state has been growing in most of the plans. However, the rate of growth has not been uniform. The growth in real terms has shown a stellar performance during the VIII and X plan, recording high rates of growth in all sectors, primary, secondary and tertiary. Lack of consistency in budgetary support to the various sectors might have been one of the contributory factors to this erratic growth. The Tenth plan has taken cognizance of the changed global scenario brought by WTO, and has targeted relevant sectors of the economy.


Changing Structure, Markov Chain, Budgetary Support, Consistency.

Subject Discipline

Business Management

Full Text:


Draft Five Year Plans, various issues, Planning Department, Government of Karnataka, Bangalore.

Karnataka State Economic Survey (various issues).

Lee, T.C., G.G.Judge and A. Zellner, 1970, Estimating the parameters of the Markov probability models from aggregate time series data, North Holland Publishers.

Mooij, Jos, and S. Mahendra Dev (2004), Social Sector Priorities: An Analysis of Budgets and Expenditures in India in the 1990s, Development Policy Review 22 (1), 97–120.


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