China's Solar Energy Scenarios and Simulation Analysis Based on Bayesian Methodology
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School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, 150001 ,CN
Hua Zhen
Keywords:
Solar, Scenario, Bayesian, China.Abstract
This paper analyzes the driving forces and key uncertainties of solar development in China, and identifies prior and posterior probability of the key uncertain factors. Thenthree scenarios of China's solar energy development are established by using Bayesian approach: best, standard and worst scenarios thatwill provide the central government reference while making strategies on energy development in China.
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