An Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Foreign Exchange Rate


Affiliations

  • Presidency College, Bangalore, India

Abstract

The Indian Rupee is launching its foot print in global market, which can be characterized by the fact that Bhutan and Nepal peg their currencies to Indian Rupee. The Indian economy contributes a higher GDP growth compared to other emerging economies. The increase in the GDP, aids well for a strong foreign exchange along with other economic factors such as gross domestic savings, forex reserve, inflation and so on. The various initiatives taken by the government recently to attract more foreign capital through various investment schemes and reduce interest rate as well assists to achieve a stabilized exchange rate in India. The RBI is focused for capital account convertibility, with various measures to achieve a freely floating currency from the present managed float in India. In view of recent appreciation of Chinese Yuan, it became tough for policy makers to take up an immediate action in supporting the home-grown industries. In this context, the research focuses to find and evaluate the various macroeconomic factors affecting the exchange rate and to model the factors using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag, to enable to forecast the exchange rate. The research focuses on finding the significant factors influencing the volatility of the exchange rate.

Keywords

Macroeconomic variables, Econometric modeling, ADF test, Vector Auto Regressive model, ARDL.

Subject Discipline

Economics

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