Future Trading in India and Commodity Price Risk Management: A Pragmatic Study
Keywords:Co-integration, Liquidity, Price Risk Management.
AbstractCommodity future markets in India are experiencing unparalleled growth and have attained critical economic significance in the last one decade. On the other hand, instability in commodity prices is becoming an issue of great concern not only for India, but all over the world impacting income, economic growth and a poor adversely. Ever-increasing demand and supply side constraints are adding to the upsurge in prices of metal and agricultural commodities, affecting manufacturers and consumers at the same time. Moreover, farmer participation in the market has been very poor. So the price risk management in commodity is not a cliché but a necessity for the development of future market. In an agriculture based economy like India, commodity derivatives are expected to play a pivotal role in the process of price discovery and risk management. The price discovery in futures markets would not be effective unless spot markets are regulated and integrated. The present paper aims to analyse the performance of futures trading in improvising commodity price risk management in India. The study employs co-integration technique to study the existence of long-term relationship between the spot and future prices of agricultural and metal commodities traded in Indian commodity exchanges. The study also explores the volatility aspect in spot and future prices to test the informational efficiency of the contracts and comment on their suitability for hedging activities. Based on the results, propositions would be made on the nature of speculative conditions and offer suggestions for improvement futures trading in commodities.
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